Bitcoin Predictions

5 Bitcoin Predictions That May Surprise You(6 min read)

Over the past decade, countless speculators have offered up moonshot predictions on bitcoin’s price point. Now, however, alongside the theories of the usual industry insiders, these forecasts are coming from major institutions, business moguls, and the market itself.

Here are five bitcoin predictions that may surprise you.

Micheal Saylor: $4.7 million per BTC 

On a recent episode of CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” MicroStrategy CEO Micheal Saylor made the bold claim that bitcoin’s market cap would one day top $100 trillion. According to the crypto critic, turned bitcoin bull, BTC’s total capitalisation will expand once It consumes gold’s market share—and everything else in its path.

“Bitcoin is going to flip gold, and it’s going to subsume the entire gold market cap,” Saylor explained. “Then it’s going to subsume negative-yielding sovereign debt and other monetary indexes until it grows to $100 trillion.”

A market capitalization of $100 trillion would net out at an eye-watering $4.7 million per BTC. But a vertiginous price prediction wasn’t Saylor’s only forecast.

According to the MicroStrategy CEO, at that price level, bitcoin would have “a stabilizing influence in the entire financial system of the 21st century,” indicating that he envisions bitcoin’s mammoth market cap materialising sometime this century.

And Saylor has put his money where his mouth is. To date, MicroStrategy has acquired 91,064 BTC, a figure that amounts to approximately $5 billion at the time of writing.

Microstrategy’s investment rationale ties intrinsically to an increase in global quantitative easing, subsequent money devaluation, and looming inflation—with BTC acting as a hedge against those macro risks.

Citibank: $318,000 per BTC

Before Saylor revealed his own prognosis for bitcoin, analysts at a global investment bank, Citi, published their own.

In November last year,  a leaked report from Thomas Fitzpatrick, a managing director for Citibank, suggested that BTC could surpass $318,000 by the end of 2021 if BTC maintains its prevailing 10-year trend.

In the past decade, bitcoin has undergone several boom and bust cycles, each one bringing its price point invariably higher. For Fitzpatrick, these market cycles bare similarities to those witnessed by gold in the 1970s, a period characterised by inflation, unemployment, and sluggish economic growth—not unlike the kinds the global economy faces today.

A Citibank technical analysis chart showing bitcoin's historical price action.
Bitcoin’s boom and bust cycles since 2010. Source: Citi

With parallels drawn between the gold price precedent and bitcoin’s predilection to repeating fractals, Fitzpatrick believes the next move up would see bitcoin current cycle end ending in December 2021, at a peak price of $318,000.

JPMorgan: $146,000 per BTC

Following in Citibank’s footsteps a few months later in January, banking monolith JPMorgan gave bitcoin a similarly dizzying (if slightly less heady) price of $146,000.

Despite the Bank’s CEO Jamie Dimon infamously decrying BTC on more than one occasion,  JPM analysts recommended that bitcoin could maintain its bullish advance if it continues to compete with gold as an asset class.

“This long term upside based on an equalization of the market cap of bitcoin to that of gold for investment purposes is conditional on the volatility of bitcoin converging to that of gold over the long term,” JPMorgan’s strategists wrote.

Bitcoin would have to almost triple from its current price to rival the total private sector investment in gold via exchange-traded funds and physical bullion.

However, to reach that point, say JPM analysts, Bitcoin’s trademark volatility would have to subdue. According to the bank, bitcoin is too volatile to find broad acceptance in institutional portfolios. Still, that trademark volatility hasn’t dissuaded several publicly listed companies such as Tesla, MicroStrategy and fintech payments firm Square from diversifying into BTC.

Jack Dorsey: Bitcoin to become a global reserve currency

Before Citi, JPMorgan, or Saylor even glanced in bitcoin’s direction, Jack Dorsey—the serial entrepreneur behind social media giant Twitter and fintech firm Square—prophesied bitcoin becoming a global reserve currency.

“The world ultimately will have a single currency, the internet will have a single currency. I personally believe that it will be bitcoin,” Dorsey said In an interview with The Times of London.

The 2018 interview took place more than two years before Square would adopt BTC as a corporate treasury asset of its own.

But far from sitting on the sidelines during that time, Dorsey was actively striving to make his prediction a reality.

In early 2020, the Square CEO won a patent for a crypto-to-fiat payments network, allowing instantaneous crypto payments to be readily converted into any currency.

Moreover, since 2019, Square’s crypto division has proactively funded bitcoin development. The firm has proved instrumental in the expansion of the Bitcoin Lightning Network, a scaling protocol that enables a higher number of transactions on the bitcoin network—improving the viability of BTC becoming a global currency.

Options markets: $100,000 per BTC

In line with the onslaught of price predictions from major banks, bets on bitcoin’s future value have been steadily aimed higher.  Options trading, a type of derivative that enables traders to speculate on the price of financial assets, often serves as a gauge of current price trends.

As bitcoin continues to hover around the $50k mark, options traders are quite literally trying to predict the future, betting that bitcoin could move to $100,000. Per data from Skew, an options-based probability of such a rally occurring by December stands at around 12%.

While few would contest many of the grounds for these predictions, whether these mammoth price forecasts actually come to fruition or not is still very much up for debate.

About Evai:

Evai aims to establish the world’s first independent ratings service for evaluating the true worth of cryptocurrencies. The platform combines economic research, machine learning, and AI to pioneer a new approach to crypto ratings and analytics. 

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